2024 American League Predictions

Nostradamus, I ain't.

Before I begin, I feel the need to share this disclaimer. I’m terrible at this sort of thing. Some of you are probably chuckling to yourselves right now and saying, “Duh, I’ve read your stuff, moron.” But regardless of whether you generally agree with my perspective or not, I believe I’m generally a knowledgeable baseball fan.

I’ve been watching the game for nearly forty years, and I have an innate ability to store and recall largely useless information. Ask me who won the Cy Young in 1991, how many home runs Mark McGwire hit in 1987, who was in the postseason in 1993, or what uniforms the Braves wore in 1986, and I got you covered. I’ve yet to figure out how to make this skill profitable, and beyond some enjoyable conversations with other sports fans and writing this newsletter, it’s not good for a whole lot else. The point I’m getting at is, if you’ve read my work, I hope I’ve proven I’m not a total baseball dunce.

Unfortunately, none of that knowledge translates into success in the realm of predictions. This is probably why I’ve never been much of a gambler. But like any good sports fan, this doesn’t stop me from making my picks every season. So, once again, I’m bravely putting my NCAA tournament bracket and last season’s MLB predictions (nobody mention either of the New York teams or San Diego in my presence) behind me and laying out what I think will happen in 2024. Please do not wager any of your real money based on these prognostications.

AL East

I wanted to take the Orioles last spring, but I went with what I thought was the safer choice in the Yankees. I won’t make the same mistake again. The O’s still had something to prove last year, and they did so, winning 101 games. This year is about taking the next step and translating their regular season success to the playoffs.

Baltimore returns a potent lineup of young stars, and it appears top prospect Jackson Holliday will be added to the mix. (After the O’s manipulate his service time, of course. Seriously, I thought we were finally getting past that nonsense.) The Orioles’ pitching staff probably overachieved a bit in 2023, but trading for former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes should be the bump that keeps the unit from regressing. In what is always one of the toughest divisions in baseball, the Orioles look like the team to beat.

AL Central

Speaking of tough divisions, the AL Central ain’t it. Easily the worst division in baseball last season— the Twins claimed it with 87 wins— it doesn’t look like the division has improved much. The outlier is, surprisingly enough, my Kansas City Royals. The Royals spent more in the offseason that any other team in the AL, dramatically upgrading their rotation and bullpen, and lengthening their lineup.

I desperately wanted to pull a Yonder Alonso and pick the Royals to win the division, but as much as I like the moves they made, it’s a tall order to go from 106 losses to the playoffs. The key to the Royals’ improvement, especially in the long-term, will not be in their free agent acquisitions, but in whether their young homegrown talent can take a big leap forward. Bobby Witt Jr. needs to prove his breakout last season wasn’t a fluke, and guys like Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, Michael Massey, MJ Melendez, and others need to join him in the legit big-leaguer circle.

I’m more optimistic about the Royals than I have been in a decade, but if I take off my blue and white glasses, the Tigers look like the better pick to break out. Detroit and Kansas City appear very similar on paper and their rebuilds have often mirrored each other, but the Tigers took a big step forward in 2023, finishing second in the division. Obviously, their 22-win advantage in 2023 doesn’t mean a thing in the 2024 standings, but it does point to Detroit being ahead of the Royals in their race toward relevancy.

That said, I’m playing it safe and picking the Twins. Minnesota hardly set the world on fire last year, and I think they actually got worse in the offseason, losing pitchers Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, but I’m not sure anyone else in this lackluster division has closed the gap. Here’s hoping my Royals prove me wrong.

AL West

Okay, my bias is showing and I talked way too much about the AL Central, so I’ll try to keep it short and sweet from here on out. The reigning World Series champion Texas Rangers reside in the AL West and look to be a factor again, but until someone knocks them off, I’m not picking against the Astros. And yes, I’m aware Texas tied Houston atop the AL West last season, but the Astros won the tiebreaker and got the playoff bye, so they’re still the real division champs in my eyes, regardless of what happened in the postseason.

A lot of fans are still mad at the Astros for the sign-stealing scandal, but that hatred doesn’t change reality. The Astros have dominated at a near-dynastic level for much of the last decade, and while I think they might be somewhat vulnerable this season, I have no doubt they’ll be one of the favorites in October again. Whoever comes out on top, I expect it will be an entertaining race, and the Mariners could be a dark horse contender as well.

On the bright side, with Shohei Ohtani no longer in Anaheim, I’m not tempted to pick the Angels as a wild card team anymore. So at least I won’t get burned there again.

AL Wild Card Teams

The loser in the battle of Texas, who I’m predicting will be the Rangers, still gets into the playoffs. And though I’m very leery of the Yankees’ pitching situation, especially with Gerrit Cole’s recent injury, I’ll take the Yankees as a wild card team. The addition of Juan Soto adds to a dangerous lineup, though again, health will be a major factor. Nobody expects Giancarlo Stanton to stay off the IL, but the key is whether Aaron Judge remains on the field. I’m feeling a big season from one of baseball’s most dynamic players in 2024. Judge reminds everyone how good he is and drags the rest of the Yankees into October with him.

I feel even shakier when it comes to the third AL wild card spot. The Mariners have a solid shot, and it feels stupid to ever bet against the Rays at this point. I love the Blue Jays’ talented core, headlined by Vladdy Jr. and Bo Bichette. They’ve struggled to get over the hump in October (and this may be their final go-around together), but they have made the playoffs several times. Toronto had a quiet offseason, which does nothing to boost their ceiling, but I’ll go with my heart over my head and pick them to edge out the Rays. I don’t feel great about it though.

AL Champion

I’m picking the Orioles to get back to the Fall Classic for the first time since 1983, and if I’m right, it’s a win for baseball. Not only are they an extremely talented team and a fresh face in the postseason that doesn’t reside in Texas, but they’re also one of the most purely entertaining teams in baseball.

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Thanks for reading Powder Blue Nostalgia. I’ll be back tomorrow with my National League picks and who the Orioles will face in the World Series. I apologize in advance if I’ve cursed your favorite team with my support, but feel free to tell me I’m an idiot in the comments.