2024 National League Predictions

This could get ugly.

In my last piece, I laid out my predictions for the American League in 2024. Again, I share the disclaimer that I’m terrible at this. You can consult the previous piece for further explanation why, but for now, let’s get straight to the picks. Just a reminder, I picked the Baltimore Orioles to come out of the AL, so let’s figure out who they’ll be playing in the Fall Classic.

NL East

Washington has no chance, and I’m not sure Miami is going to have a healthy pitcher on the 40-man roster by Opening Day, so that rules them out as a dark horse. Like the Angels, the Mets are a team that frequently burns me, and last year was no exception. I actually think the Mets will bounce back in 2024, but not to the point where they’re in contention for the division.

This division boils down to Atlanta and Philadelphia. The Phillies have outperformed the Braves in the postseason each of the last two years, but the Braves have been the superior regular season team. I like Philly a lot. They locked up their top two pitchers this offseason and have a lineup full of mashers, but I’m still picking Atlanta.

I’m not holding my breath Chris Sale will stay healthy, but the Braves had a great rotation even before adding him, making him a major X factor that could elevate an already outstanding team. And as impressive as Philly’s lineup is, the Braves have the best one-through-nine batting order this side of Chavez Ravine. Philadelphia has started slow each of the last two seasons, so a fast start out of the gate may make the difference between a tight race or the Braves running away with it. Either way, I’ll pick Atlanta to capture the division. As for what might happen in the postseason, well, we’ll get to that in a bit.

NL Central

The NL Central is not as bad as the AL Central by a long shot, but it’s the weakest of the three divisions in the senior circuit. And because it doesn’t have a clear-cut favorite, it’s also the hardest to predict.

I feel safe ruling out Pittsburgh, but I could go either way on just about everyone else. The Brewers have been the class of the division in recent years, but despite possessing the best logo in baseball, their lineup isn’t terribly intimidating, they traded away a former Cy Young winner, likely won’t have Brandon Woodruff for the season, and lost their manager, Craig Counsell, to the rival Cubs. Many fans typically overestimate the impact of a manager in major league baseball, but Counsell is one of the best.

The Cardinals were terrible last season, and while it was amusing to listen to Cardinals fans act like the sky was falling during one bad season, I’m not sure they improved much this offseason. That said, I feel like they underachieved last year, still boast some outstanding talent headlined by Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, and I can definitely see them getting back into the mix this year.

That leaves the Reds and Cubs. Elly de la Cruz came back to Earth after a sizzling debut last season, but I’m optimistic he can adjust and return to stellar form in his sophomore season. Even if he doesn’t, the Reds are loaded with young talent around him. Losing the veteran presence of Joey Votto hurts in the locker room, but might not affect them much on the field. Like Texas and Arizona last season, Cincinnati could be poised to take a big leap this season.

I’m going with the Cubs though. The young talent they’ve been bringing up might not be the equal of the core that won the World Series in 2016, but after falling short of the playoffs last season and re-signing Cody Bellinger this spring, I say the Cubs will be motivated to stamp their ticket to the postseason.

NL West

This is a bit of a no-brainer. Even though the D-Backs are coming off a World Series appearance and looked poised to contend again, and the Padres and Giants have retooled after disappointing seasons, this is the Dodgers’ division to lose.

Los Angeles went all-in this offseason, and even though we won’t ever see them at their true full power, because Ohtani won’t resume pitching until 2025 (assuming he doesn’t receive a Pete Rose lifetime ban for gambling in the meantime), the Dodgers’ roster is ridiculous.

They’ve been the best franchise in baseball for the last decade, but it hasn’t correlated to championships. I don’t discount the Covid title in 2020 the way some people do, but it certainly muted the experience and joy of winning it all. They didn’t even get to have a parade. And Dodgers fans are chomping at the bit to do it without an asterisk.

Of course, MLB’s postseason is a bit of a crapshoot, especially as it’s currently constructed. Baseball can be a weird sport in a small sample size, and we’ve seen the format bite the best teams in recent years. I think it’s crazy to suggest teams like the Dodgers and Braves should tank to get a wild card and avoid the bye, but the fact that it was even a talking point last October is a reminder to keep the Dodgers’ postseason failures in perspective.

However, no one reminisces about fantastic regular seasons. Flags fly forever and championships are what people remember. And that’s how this Dodgers core will be judged, fair or not. They have all the pieces, and I have no doubt they will win the division in the regular season. But what really matters is if they can get it done in the postseason, and that remains to be seen.

NL Wild Cards

The Phillies are an easy pick for me. They went to the World Series two years ago, and were back in the NLCS last year. Whether they push the Braves for the division title or not, barring a rash of serious injuries or some other catastrophe, they’ll be there in October. The other two spots are where it gets murky.

I’d love to pick the Diamondbacks, who were a likable Cinderella story last season, but I think they could be due for a regression. Meanwhile, the Mets appear to have voluntarily taken a step back to recalibrate. Even so, they still have a lot of talent and I could see them surprising people in 2024. I can’t bring myself to pick them, however. If the Mets are going to burn me again this year, it’s going to be for opposite reasons than normal.

So, who gets the nod then? I predict a battle in the NL Central, and I’ll take the youth of the Reds over the vets in St. Louis. And out west, I can see a duel between resurgent San Diego and San Francisco teams. Neither will sniff first place, and the ceiling San Diego fans were envisioning just a year ago is already out the window, but I’ll say the Padres manage to sneak into October.

NL Champions

Playoff baseball is different than the regular season, especially with the current format. Of course, a team has to be good enough to endure the grind of the regular season, but some teams are simply better constructed to thrive in the postseason sprint. And the best regular season teams aren’t always ideally suited for the chaos of October.

It’s tempting to label the Dodgers as just such a team, but even though they’ve only hoisted one trophy in the last decade, they’ve still made several deep runs to the World Series, so I’m not sure they qualify. And the recent struggles of the Braves in the playoffs (2021 World Series notwithstanding) are puzzling to me as well, since I’ve viewed them as equally capable in March or October.

But there’s no doubt the Phillies are a team built for October. Their regular seasons may be so-so, but they turn it on in the postseason, and their roster is stacked with guys who perform their best when the lights are brightest. That’s why I’m picking the Phils to come out of the National League. Led by a monster campaign from Bryce Harper, I’m going to say they will beat the Orioles in six games in a rematch of the 1983 World Series.

I’ve already gone longer than I intended, and I’m even worse at picking individual awards, so I won’t subject you to my predictions for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, etc. And remember, take everything I’ve said here with a massive grain of salt. Ultimately though, it doesn’t matter if your picks hold up or not. All that matters is baseball is back, and it’s time to play ball!

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