A Quarter of the Way In

Let's see how everyone is doing.

As I write this, we are basically a quarter of the way through the 2025 baseball season. So, I thought it would be a good time to look back on my spring training predictions and see how I’m doing thus far.*

*Editor’s note: I’m writing this a few days before I actually publish it. If something major happens, like Shohei Ohtani going down with a season-ending injury, or the entire Detroit Tigers roster gets lost in a corn maze and disappears for months, I’ll scrap it and start from scratch. But if a team goes on a five-game losing streak or something like that, I’ll probably leave it as is, or just add a note. A development like that can certainly cast a pall over a team, but it’s not enough to change my first quarter impressions that much.

In general, my predictions have not been kind. But then again, I warned you they probably wouldn’t. Hopefully, you took my advice and did not use them as a betting guide. Let’s jump around from division to division to see what I got right and wrong. Click on these links if you want to review my AL and NL picks.

AL Central

I’m going to start with the AL Central because that’s where my Royals play, but also because I think it’s a really interesting division. A lot of people discounted the Central putting three teams in the playoffs last season (with the Twins not far behind), and gave most of the credit to the White Sox lifting everyone else up. I wasn’t one of them, but I’ll admit I didn’t see the division having the same kind of success in 2025.

Roughly forty games in, it turns out we were all wrong. The AL Central is for real. Regression was a concern for all four contenders, including my homer pick, the Royals. Early on, it looked like the Royals were going to validate my concerns, getting out of the gate to a lackluster start. But over the past month, the Royals have been arguably the hottest team in baseball. The offense, outside of Bobby Witt Jr., is still a work in progress, but the pitching has been excellent.

Fortunately, for Royals fans, the rest of the lineup has shown some signs of life, albeit not as consistently as I’d like, and while I don’t like to hype up minor leaguers too much, there is a guy named Jac Cagliaone tearing up AA. I’d expect to see him in KC this summer. Pair him together with a corner outfield bat acquired at the deadline, and I’ll feel really good about the Royals heading down the home stretch.

The only catch to the Royals’ success is that nobody else in the division has regressed either. The Tigers have been the best team in the AL so far, and while the Guardians look a little shakier than usual, they find ways to win games. Even the Twins, who looked like they might fall out of it early, have rebounded and put themselves back in the mix. If the season ended today, the Tigers would be the top seed in the AL, and the Guardians and Royals would be the top two wild cards.

Long story short, my pick of the Royals is still in good shape, even if they aren’t currently in first place. No matter how it plays out, it should be a fun summer in the Central.

AL East

I need to make these shorter if I’m going to cover all six divisions, but now that we got the Royals out of the way, that should be easier. As I move to the AL East, I don’t know how else to describe it, other than to call it a mild disappointment.

I went with the Red Sox to win the division after their great offseason, and they’ve been fine so far, generally holding down second place behind the Yankees. This team still has a lot of untapped potential, and even with all the Rafael Devers drama, I continue to feel good about this pick. It’s the rest of the division that’s really let me down.

I should have put my faith in the Central, but instead, I leaned on the East for my wild card picks. They Yankees are doing fine, and they’ll likely make the playoffs in one fashion or another, but the Orioles have been a disaster. Their offseason was the opposite of Boston’s, and I knew they had major questions on the mound, but I expected their bats to pick them up until they figured out the pitching. That hasn’t happened, and the Orioles are languishing in last place. Between them and the top of the standings, Toronto and Tampa have been the definition of mediocre.

AL West

I picked Seattle as a wild card and the Rangers to bounce back and win the division. In fact, I had them winning the AL pennant. So far, they’re doing their best to make me look foolish. The front of the rotation has been very good with Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle, and a (knock on wood) healthy Jacob deGrom, but their offense has been so disappointing that Bruce Bochy has already made changes to his coaching staff.

There are serious concerns with the Rangers, although they do have a history of being a strong second half team, and as impressive as the Mariners have been, they have a history of fading, so I’m not sweating this pick too much yet.

As for the rest of the division, the A’s have been much improved. I’m just not sure anyone cares, thanks to the debacle that is their ownership. The Astros appear to be falling back to Earth, but it would be premature to write them off just yet. They’ve played dead before, although this is a different core, outside of Jose Altuve. And the Angels, after a nice start, have sunk back to the basement. That was expected, but I wish Mike Trout could stay healthy. Even if he can’t have a run on a contender, I’d still like to get a few more years of him at his peak.

NL East

Moving over to the senior circuit, I thought the NL East might be the toughest division in baseball, and it definitely provided me with my toughest pick. Between the Mets, Phillies, and Braves, I went with the latter as my division champ, and the other two as wild cards, a choice that now looks, let’s say, flawed.

I knew the Braves would not be at full strength to start the season, with Ronald Acuna and Spencer Strider working their way back from major injuries, but they got off to a horrendous 0-7 start. Hardly insurmountable in a 162-game season, but that’s a tough hole to put yourself in. To their credit, they have mostly dug themselves out of it, working back to .500 even before their best players have returned.

The problem is the Mets and Phillies have been as good as advertised, so the Braves find themselves solidly in third place at the quarter-mark of the season. It won’t be easy, but there is plenty of time to make up ground, and I suspect the Braves will factor into the playoff race in some capacity, no matter what. However, at this point, I’d bet on it being the wild card race. I probably should have gone with the Mets or Phillies for my division pick.

NL Central

Last year, I went with the Cubs and they disappointed. That scared me off of them, and I went with the Brewers this year, given their talent and consistency. Of course, that means the Cubs have gotten off to a great start, and the Brewers were memorably bombarded by the Yankees and their torpedo bats to begin the season.

Even so, I’m not panicking about this pick yet, and not just because I really wouldn’t mind seeing the Cubs back in the postseason. Their offense has been off the charts so far, but injuries are adding up to the rotation, and as impressive as the Northsiders have been, it’s not like they’ve built up a comfortable cushion in what is probably the weakest division in baseball.

The Brewers have righted the ship, and I expect them to stick around the for the long term. I’m not as convinced about the Cardinals or Reds, though I do think Cincinnati is fun and a dangerous team to watch. The Pirates are the only team I’d dismiss completely at this point, even if they do have arguably the most exciting pitcher in baseball taking the mound every five days.

NL West

It’s possible I was blinded by the Dodgers. I picked them to win the West and the World Series, and they’ve been every bit as good as expected. And even though I picked San Diego to grab a wild card, I clearly didn’t appreciate how good this division is. A quarter of the way into the season, and I think it’s safe to say the NL West is the best division in baseball.

The Dodgers and Padres are the headliners, but the surprising Giants have hung with them every step of the way. Not only that, but the Diamondbacks are in striking position as well. The Giants were expected to be improved, but it’s been four years of going backwards since they won 107 games to edge out the Dodgers for the 2021 NL West title, so I don’t think anyone outside the Bay area expected them to be this good.

The team we really slept on was Arizona. The D-Backs were in the World Series two seasons ago. Sure, they regressed a bit last year, but for young teams like the Diamondbacks, that kind of step back is usually followed by a step or two forward, and after reloading on pitching, Arizona is primed for that kind of progression. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that the West could grab all three wild card spots. Unlikely, as I expect they’ll beat up on each other to a certain extent and at least one team will fall out, but definitely not impossible.

The real loser here is Colorado. I don’t like to call anyone a loser, but I don’t know what else you can call the 2025 Rockies. A year after the White Sox set the major league record for losses, and could very well challenge their own mark this season, Sox fans can take some solace in knowing that even if their team loses over 120 games again, their mark is likely to be eclipsed by the Rockies.

It’s sad to see what’s become of the Rockies. Not too long ago, I was at Coors Field, watching a juggernaut offense led by stars like Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon. All those guys are gone now. Colorado has had some tough breaks (Kris Bryant) and whole lot of mismanagement and penny-pinching to put them in this position, but it is tough to watch.

The Rockies don’t do anything well, and as tough of a division as the White Sox have to deal with, the NL West is even better. The Dodgers, Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks are going to feast on the Rockies, and it could get very ugly. To put it in perspective, the Rockies have been historically bad in the first quarter of the season, and they’ve hardly played any division games at all. It’s going to get so much worse.

Okay, that should bring you up to speed on how the 2025 season has gone so far, if you haven’t paid close attention, and give you an idea of how my predictions are turning out. I’ll be honest, it wasn’t as bad as I expected when I sat down to write this article. I’m not hitting the cover off the ball like Aaron Judge, but I’d say my average is better than anybody playing in Colorado or the South Side of Chicago right now.

That’s something.

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Thanks for reading Powder Blue Nostalgia. Feel free to share your thoughts on the season so far, brag about what you got right, or commiserate with others over your misguided predictions in the comments.