My 2025 AL Preview

Opening Day is almost here!

I don’t have a tangent locked and loaded this week, so let’s get straight to my American League predictions and see who I think we’ll be facing the Dodgers in the World Series.

AL East: Boston Red Sox

All in all, my NL predictions played it safe. I didn’t really go out on a limb with any of the teams I picked. And that makes a lot of sense when it comes to baseball prognostication. This isn’t the NCAA Tournament. The expanded postseason might be more unpredictable than ever, but it’s extremely difficult for a fluky team to maintain their luck over 162 games. The grind of the MLB schedule has a way of picking off pretenders. So, if I’m going to gamble a little, it makes sense to do it in the toughest, deepest division in baseball, and I may as well earn some points with my mother-in-law* while I’m at it.

*She’s from Maine, and despite living in Kansas City for most of her adult life, she has maintained her loyalty to the Red Sox.

I can make a case for each of the five teams in the AL East. My argument for the Blue Jays might lack conviction, since it feels like they’ve been completely rudderless for the last couple of seasons, and while the Rays have made many doubters look foolish over the last decade-and-a-half, I’m not fully convinced they will bounce back either. But it wouldn’t shock me if either team put together a special season. That said, I think the race will come down to the other three teams.

I want to pick Baltimore. O’s fans endured a brutal rebuild that began in earnest in 2018, but they’ve been rewarded with back-to-back trips to the postseason. The experience has proved bittersweet, however, as the Orioles have failed to win a single game in either trip, including a 2-0 sweep on their home field to my Royals in the 2024 AL Wild Card Series. Their vaunted offense was nonexistent, scoring only a single run in two games, but their pitching kept them in it.

After losing Corbin Burnes in free agency, their pitching staff is a question mark in 2025, but it would be a mistake to sleep on their offense. Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman continue to lead a talented young core, and despite his struggles last season, I expect Jackson Holliday to make his presence felt in his second time around. A sense of stagnation appeared to be setting in at Camden Yards at the end of last season, but it wasn’t long ago the Orioles were rolling through the division with what felt like an unstoppable momentum. I believe they can get that back, though the competition won’t make it easy.*

*And Baltimore certainly didn’t do itself any favors in the offseason either, as Colin Cerniglia recently pointed out.

The same goes for the defending AL champs, the Yankees. They seem to be the favorite in 2025, but the Bronx Bombers have already encountered their fair share of obstacles. For starters, losing a generational player like Juan Soto is bound to be a blow. In my appraisal of the Mets, I mentioned I’m usually hesitant to invest so heavily into a single player, even one as talented as Soto, but the Mets have the money and motivation to not let it hamper their efforts to fill out the team.

The Yankees have the money too, but this new generation of Steinbrenners don’t seem to have the motivation to spend it, and it could come back to bite them. Aaron Judge is a generational player in his own right, but he won’t have the same kind of protection in front of him in the lineup without Soto.

Then there is the question of health. Judge has had trouble staying healthy in consecutive seasons his whole career, and the pitching staff has already taken hits to ace Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil. Newcomer Max Fried helps, but their depth has already been severely tested, and they haven’t even left Florida yet.

That leaves the Red Sox. Boston’s recent history is kind of strange. Ownership has turned incredibly cheap as of late, and it’s played hell with the team’s consistency. That said, regardless of what’s going on in the offices of Fenway, it feels like the Red Sox rise up every four or five years and make a legit run at a World Series. And after an incredible offseason, they may be due.

Jarren Duran is coming off a great season, and assuming they can figure out where everyone is going to play in the infield, Alex Bregman brings another championship pedigree to go alongside Rafael Devers. New acquisition Garret Crochet leads a revamped and healthy rotation. The gap isn’t big, but I believe the Red Sox can separate themselves from the field.

AL Central: Kansas City Royals

The AL Central was the most surprising division in baseball last season. Everyone expected the division to be terrible, with the Twins and Guardians as the favorites, but many allowed an opening for upstarts like Kansas City and Detroit if they overachieved and the division played down to them. But instead of playing out like that, the Central produced three playoff teams (CLE, KC, DET), and the Twins were in the mix until the final weekend. It was arguably the most competitive, and certainly one of the most fun divisions in the league in 2024.

As its critics were quick to point out, the historically bad White Sox played a role in that, propping up the other four teams’ records. It can’t be denied that this helped, but I also believe its effect has been overblown. None of the four AL Central contenders were phonies. Obviously, none of them were juggernauts either, though the Guardians played like one at times, but none of them were flukes. They were all for real, which sets the stage for a very interesting and difficult-to-predict 2025.

The White Sox are going to be bad again. Let’s just get that out of the way. They can’t possibly be as bad as last year, or worse (can they?), but they won’t be a whole lot better, which should give the rest of the division a bump, even if it’s not quite as pronounced as last season. But who will benefit the most?

The Twins are getting a lot of love, but I just don’t see it. They might have the most overall talent, especially if Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan continue to deal at the top of a deep rotation, but counting on Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis to stay healthy feels like Charlie Brown setting up to kick the ball while Lucy holds it. It’s possible they might finally catch lightning in a bottle, and if they do, Minnesota will be in great shape, but I can’t predict it will happen. Buxton, in particular, is super talented, but as a Royals fan, I went down that road with Adalberto Mondesi too many times. I know how it ends.

The Guardians were the class of the division last year, and they advanced to the ALCS, but even then, the Royals caught them in late August before an injury to Vinnie Pasquantino sent them into a tailspin for the last month of the season. They always find elite starting pitching somehow, and Emmanuel Clase is the best closer in baseball. Outside of Jose Ramirez, there are no elite players in their lineup, but when has that ever slowed them down before?

Part of me thinks the Guardians were a bit charmed last year in manager Stephen Vogt’s debut season. I don’t mean to discount what they accomplished. They were a very good team, but I’m not convinced they’re quite as good as their record indicated. I think they were a very good team that clicked on the field and in the clubhouse, and when they got it rolling, they rode it and overachieved, just a little. They’ll be in the mix again in 2025, but I hesitate to make them the prohibitive favorite.

That brings us to Kansas City and Detroit, two teams whose rebuilds have often mirrored each other. The Royals were the more consistent team over the course of the 2024 season, but after a disappointing start, the Tigers finished white-hot. Both teams clinched Wild Card berths with identical 86-76 records, and both advanced to the ALDS.

Even with the addition of Gleybor Torres, the Tigers don’t wow anyone with a ton of star power in their lineup, but they kind of remind me of the 2014-15 Royals with their keep-the-line-moving mentality. They probably have a little more power than those Royals teams, just because that’s the direction the game is going, but they do a lot of things well, and when they’re on, they have a knack for pouring on runs.

Reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal leads the rotation, and Jack Flaherty returns after being traded midseason in 2024 and winning a championship with the Dodgers. Jackson Jobe is the young guy to watch, and how he adjusts to the majors in his first full season as a starter could be key to the team’s ultimate success.

The Royals can match the Tigers when it comes to pitching, however. Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo finished fourth and second, respectively, in Cy Young voting, and they re-signed Michael Wacha to bring back their big three. They did, however, trade Brady Singer to Cincinnati for Jonathan India, a much-needed leadoff hitter.

The Royals offense was up-and-down in 2024, and downright abysmal the final month of the season after 1B/DH Vinnie Pasquantino was hurt. A full, healthy season from the Pasquatch and another vintage year from Salvador Perez will be critical if Kansas City wants to reach the promised land, but make no mistake about, this team’s success revolves around Bobby Witt Jr. Arguably the most complete player in baseball, Witt played at an MVP level in 2024. It might be unfair to ask more of him, but the Royals need him to keep pace with the bar he’s already set. Fortunately, Witt feels like the rare player who can not only meet such ridiculous expectations, but maybe even exceed them.

My big concern with the Royals is regression. They improved by thirty wins last season. That’s almost unheard of, and frankly, next to impossible to do, which gives you an idea of how bad they were in 2023. The team deserves a lot of credit for that jump, but a host of things went right for them as well, and it’s fair to wonder if they’ll be as fortunate in 2025. Will their rotation stay as healthy as a year ago? Can the bullpen build off their strong finish? Can Salvy continue to fend off Father Time? The list goes on.

The thing that gives me some solace as a Royals fan is that the question of regression hangs over the other three contenders as well. At least one of them, and maybe several of them, will get bitten by it, which is why this division is so hard to pin down. You’re going to call me a homer for picking the Royals, and you’re partially right. When it’s this close, why not pick your home team? Let’s face it, the Royals aren’t in this position very often, so it feels like a waste not to take advantage of it. But at the same time, I really didn’t want to pick them. I’m too superstitious, I suppose, and I’m afraid of jinxing them.

Superstition be damned though. I’m going with KC. Let’s go Royals!

AL West: Texas Rangers

I’m going to short-change the AL West, mostly because I’ve gone on too long about the previous two divisions, but also because I don’t have a lot to say about it. The Angels are going to suck, but hopefully, Mike Trout can stay healthy and rediscover his old magic. The A’s should be improved, and maybe they can be a surprise playoff team, but even though I like Brent Rooker, it’s hard to root for them after what they did to the city of Oakland.

The Astros are entering a new era. Most of their familiar faces are gone, and Jose Altuve is going to play LF. What’s up with that? I don’t expect them to fall off a cliff or anything like that, but I think they will take a step back. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the Astros are a well-run organization, and even in a transition year, they have the firepower to make the postseason and potentially win the division.

I’m going with Texas, however. I want to pick Seattle. Mariners fans deserve some success, and their pitching staff looks to be lights out. But Justin Turner is right.* With that rotation in place, Seattle had a chance to really go for it, but instead, they held back. Why? I can’t explain it. They still have some serious talent, especially if Julio Rodriguez bounces back to his MVP form and Randy Arozarena finds his groove in the Pacific Northwest, but unless they’re gearing up for the midseason trade deadline, it’s a surprisingly conservative approach from a front office known for wheeling and dealing.

*He called the team out for not going all-in behind their outstanding rotation this offseason, and chose to sign with the Cubs instead of re-upping in Seattle.

Seattle’s hesitation benefits the Rangers though. Remember when the Rangers won the World Series? It feels like a lifetime ago, but I assure you it happened just seventeen months ago. I don’t trust Jacob DeGrom to stay healthy, and I don’t know if Aroldis Garcia can return to form, but I’m not sure it will matter. The Rangers are loaded across the board. A lot of fans have understandably forgotten about Texas after last season, but I have a feeling the Rangers are going to remind everyone they’re for real.

AL Wild Cards

I have no idea how this article ran so long, so I’ll keep these picks short and sweet with no further explanation. Give me Baltimore, New York, and Seattle.

Why do I have this sinking feeling Cleveland is going to make me look stupid?

AL Champions: Texas Rangers

I don’t feel great about this pick, but maybe Bruce Bochy is going to do an odd-number-year thing with the Rangers to match his even-year schtick with San Francisco.

World Series

Like I said, anything can happen in the MLB postseason, but it just feels stupid to pick against the Dodgers. I’ll take L.A. over Texas in six.

Play ball!

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Thank you for reading Powder Blue Nostalgia. Make sure you leave your AL picks in the comments. If you don’t get them in now, you can’t brag about them later, assuming you’re better at this than I am and actually get something right.