Halfway There
How things look at the All-Star Break.
We’ve reached the All-Star Break, which is the traditional halfway point of the season, even if the math doesn’t quite add up, so just as we did at the quarter mark, this feels like a good time to see how my preseason picks are holding up. SPOILER ALERT: this might be my worst season ever when it comes to making predictions, which is saying something.
AL CENTRAL
I’m starting with the AL Central again, because it’s the division I’m most invested in. A quarter of the way in, it looked like the Central was going to surprise again with four teams in the mix, but as I mentioned in my preseason AL preview, the biggest fear for all of the four relevant AL Central teams was regression, and that has proven true. The Tigers have avoided it, racing out to the best record in baseball, but the Royals, Twins, and Guardians have all fallen prey to it in some form.
Early on, it felt like the Royals were pressing out of the gate, eager to keep last season’s momentum rolling and get off to a fast start. When that didn’t happen, they pressed even more and the offense continued to struggle. However, their pitching is some of the best in baseball, and they used a favorable stretch in the schedule to get right and put themselves back into the mix.
Unfortunately, consistency has been a hard thing for the Royals’ bats to nail down. Bobby Witt Jr. is having another outstanding season, he’s one of the top players in baseball as expected, but because his numbers aren’t quite as unreal as last year, a lot of people act like he’s having a down year. Hell, he’s not even starting the ASG, which is ridiculous.*
*Jacob Wilson is a great story for the A’s, who desperately need a great story, and I’m not trying to take away from his accomplishment, but c’mon, he has no business starting at SS over BWJ. Wilson has a better batting average than Witt, but that’s about it.
Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez got off to slow starts, but both found their groove in June. The doubters were dogpiling on Salvy early on, but the Captain has proven he’s not done yet. Still, every time the Royals start to get something going, the offense sputters and their momentum stalls.
The Royals currently sit three games under .500, and the division appears to be out of reach. The good news is the AL Wild Card is a mess. The Royals are only 4.5 games out from the final WC spot, and while there are a lot of teams they’re going to have to leap over to get to the promised land, they finished the first half by winning seven of their last ten. If there is going to be a team that gets hot and makes a run in the second half, similar to what Detroit did in 2024, the Royals definitely have the potential to be that team. Of course, there are about six other teams who look the part too, including their division rivals the Twins and Guardians.
Personally, I like the Royals as the best candidate in the AL Central. Call me a homer if you want, and I’ll admit I feel less confident about their chances against some of the AL East teams and maybe the Mariners too, but if you squint hard enough, you can see it, Royals fans. How they come out of the All-Star Break will be crucial, determining whether the front office wants to make deals that bring in reinforcements or deals that regroup for next year.
AL EAST
My pick, the Red Sox, got off to good start, then stumbled a bit, Alex Bregman got hurt, the Rafael Devers soap opera ended with him being sent to San Franciso, and they finished the first half by winning ten games in a row. Talk about a rollercoaster.
The downside of that is, even after their hot finish, they still find themselves in third place. The upside is they’re only three games back, and they currently look like the best bet to be this year’s version of the 2024 Tigers. If so, they have a lot less ground to make up, which would put them in good position to win the East and make me look smart.
The Yankees held down first place for most of the first half, but a sluggish finish saw them fall from their perch. They would still be my betting favorite at this point to win the division, but worst case, they should fulfill my prediction of nabbing a Wild Card spot. I was way off with Baltimore for one of the other WC spots, and look especially foolish for dismissing the chances of Toronto and Tampa Bay, particularly with the former currently sitting in first place and making a case for the best story in baseball.
AL WEST
I think I can sum up this division pretty quick. First off, no matter how many names change or whoever gets hurt, never pick against the Astros. I’ll learn that someday. I picked the 2023 champion Rangers to bounce back after a bad 2024, but it hasn’t happened. Like the Mariners, who I picked to win a WC spot, the Rangers are in the thick of the crowded Wild Card race. But then again, so are the Angels, which gives you an idea of how muddled and mediocre the AL Wild Card race is right now.
NL EAST
In my preseason NL preview, I wrote about how good the top of the NL East looked and how I could make a strong case for the Mets, Phillies, and Braves to all win the division. Ultimately, I went with the Braves. So what happened?
Atlanta got off to a horrendous start that probably cost them the division in the first two weeks of the season, given how good New York and Philadelphia have been. I picked both the Mets and Phillies to be Wild Card teams, and it looks like a given they’ll both be in the postseason as they duke it out for the division, but Atlanta is much more of a question mark.
At the quarter mark of the season, the Braves looked like they’d figured things out, but they’ve been so inconsistent it feels like they should be part of the AL Central. At the break, they’re eleven games under .500, two games back of the Marlins and in fourth place in NL East. The Braves half the talent to put together a second half run, but they have a lot of work to do.
NL CENTRAL
I wanted to pick the Cubs again this year, but after they let me down in 2024, I was too gun-shy to pull the trigger. Turns out, I was a year too early with my prediction. The Cubs have been one of the most fun teams in baseball, with a high-powered offense led by Kyle Tucker and emerging superstar Pete Crow-Armstrong. Their pitching staff has taken some hits, so it will be interesting to see if they make any moves to strengthen it at the deadline.
Despite the mistakes I made with the Cubs, it’s not like I totally derped this division. I went with the dependable Brewers, and lost in all the excitement coming from the north side of Chicago is yet another strong Brewers season. Milwaukee is currently sitting comfortably with the top NL Wild Card spot, and they’re only a game back of the Cubbies in the Central. Division titles no longer mean as much as they used to, but I foresee an exciting stretch run and pennant chase between these two rivals.
NL WEST
The Dodgers had all the preseason hype here, and while they’re not going to break the Mariners’ 116-win mark after all, there’s never been any doubt about who’s winning this division. That aligns with my predictions. That said, I thought this was a deep division, outside of the abysmal Rockies. The other four teams are going to pound Colorado into a historically bad season, but I also expected them to beat up on each other.
That has happened, to a certain extent, but I also think the division has been a little disappointing overall. In particular, I’m looking at Arizona. Like their 2023 World Series opponents, I expected the Diamondbacks to bounce back in 2025, but it hasn’t really happened. They’re not a bad team, but they haven’t taken the jump I expected, and they may be running out of time. Unlike the Rangers, the D-Backs play in the much tougher NL, and the Wild Card situation reflects that.
The Padres currently hold down the last NL WC spot, and if they can hold on to it, they’ll give me a sorely needed win in my predictions. But consistency has been a problem for San Diego too, and the Giants are right there with them. Neither of them has a shot at the division, but even if they leave the rest of the NL WC contenders behind, it should be a competitive race between them for the postseason.
That brings us to my World Series prediction of Dodgers vs. Rangers. Obviously, I still feel good about one of those. I’d probably lean Detroit for my AL pick now, but there’s a lot left to be decided in the season’s second half. The AL isn’t particularly good this year, but that can make for a lot of fun when so many teams are tangled up, and once a team gets into the postseason, who knows what can happen? As far as the NL goes, I’m really excited for the postseason. No matter how the seedings pan out, there are so many good teams, providing a wide range of compelling matchups. All of this could make for a very memorable October.
I’m not holding my breath, but fingers crossed my Royals are a part of it.
Thanks for reading Powder Blue Nostalgia. Feel free to brag about how your preseason predictions are looking in the comments, or, if yours look like mine, you can commiserate with me. Or, if you’d prefer, you can ignore your own failures and just laugh at mine. You can also talk about the All-Star Game. I’m writing this before the game, but it will come out the morning after, so we can definitely talk about that too!